Universal’s “Wicked” is kicking off what is expected to be a lucrative holiday season for theaters with $27.7 million grossed on Friday from 3,888 theaters, putting it on course for an estimated $117 million opening weekend. The total is nearly quadrupling the $31 million opening earned 10 years ago by “Into the Woods” to set a new record for a Broadway adaptation.
With $19 million already in the bag from three days of previews, “Wicked” is expected to have massive matinee play from family and female audiences, not just this weekend, but in the weeks to come. That’s even with Disney’s “Moana 2” expected to shatter the Thanksgiving weekend opening record.
Jon M. Chu’s musical has earned stellar reception across the board, including Rotten Tomatoes scores of 89% critics and 98% audience, an A on CinemaScore and a 5/5 on PostTrak, with a stunning 80% surveyed giving the film a “definite recommend,” the highest rating on the audience exit poll.
“Wicked” covers the first act of the 2003 Broadway play, with a second part coming in November 2025. The two films were shot together — albeit with delays caused by last year’s SAG-AFTRA strike — and carried a reported combined production budget of $300 million before a costly, global marketing campaign.
But early signs show that Universal’s “all-in” approach to this film is paying off, with longtime fans of the musical and lead stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande singing its praises on social media. That buzz should resonate not just through this winter, but all the way to next year, when “Wicked — Part II” arrives.
Theaters are also getting a big boost from Paramount’s “Gladiator II,” which is opening to a solid $60 million this weekend. As an R-rated sword-and-sandals epic, this film is looking to play to primarily male and older audiences looking for a big-budget alternative to the musicals and family films that will largely define the holiday season slate.
Reception for the film has been generally positive, but not as strong as “Wicked” or the first “Gladiator,” including Rotten Tomatoes scores of 72% critics and 84% audience, 4/5 on PostTrak and a B on CinemaScore. Paramount is looking to leg out with stronger buzz among its core demographic while getting continued support from overseas markets.
Thanks to these two films, overall grosses for the weekend are currently estimated to blast off to $210 million-plus. That’s a staggering 83% higher than the $115 million Fri.-Sun. overall total grossed on Thanksgiving weekend in 2023.
That is setting up for a Thanksgiving weekend that industry observers anticipate will be one of, if not the largest, in industry history. “Moana 2” is expected to shatter the holiday weekend record set by the second weekend of “Frozen II” with $125 million over five days in 2019, and that, combined with the second weekends of “Wicked” and “Gladiator II,” could challenge the overall Thanksgiving weekend record of $314 million set in 2018.
