Why This Year’s Oscar Race Will Go Down to the Wire

In a confusing year, it takes a long time for a winner to emerge in our simulated Best Picture count

Michael Keaton in Birdman and Ellar Coltrane in Boyhood

A version of this story appeared in the Down to the Wire issue of TheWrap magazine.

As one of the strangest and most confounding years in recent Academy Awards history enters its final week of voting, things should be feeling more settled. After all, “Birdman” has won the top award from the Producers Guild and the Directors Guild, along with the Screen Actors’ Guild’s ensemble honor. By all rights, it should be a easy pick to win the Best Picture Oscar on Feb. 22.

And it probably will be — except that almost nobody would be surprised by an upset.

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