Sony/Columbia’s “Venom: The Last Dance” isn’t shaping up to be a “Joker: Folie a Deux”-esque disaster, but it is also falling well short of its predecessors in the U.S. with an estimated $52 million domestic opening weekend from 4,131 locations after a $22 million opening day.
That is short of the $65 million pre-release projections for the Marvel antihero film and well short of the $80 million opening weekend of the first “Venom” in 2018.
On the flipside, overseas grosses are looking very good with $72.8 million so far through Friday and an estimated $128 million through Sunday, which would give the film a $180 million global launch. With a $120 million production budget — well below “Joker 2” and many other contemporary comic book films — “Venom 3” still has a chance to post a decent theatrical profit if it gets continued international turnout.
As for the softer showing in the U.S., it may be possible that the Yankees-Dodgers World Series, the first involving both the top markets of New York and Los Angeles since 1981, is having some impact on walk-up traffic. But early audience reception for the film isn’t as strong as those of past “Venom” films, which were able to buck negative reviews from critics.
While parents and kids gave “Venom 3” a 5/5 on PostTrak, the overall grade on CinemaScore came in at a B-, below the B+ given to the past two “Venom” films. We have seen in the past that even a middling CinemaScore grade for a wide release can be a sign of poor legs ahead, so we will see how “The Last Dance” does next weekend, when it will be facing a number of specialty releases like Searchlight’s “A Real Pain” and adult fare like Sony/TriStar’s “Here.”
Also opening this weekend is Focus Features’ “Conclave,” which is opening to a $6.5 million launch from 1,731 locations, meeting pre-release projections. Starring Ralph Fiennes and directed by “All Quiet on the Western Front” director Edward Berger, the film earned a B+ on CinemaScore to go with Rotten Tomatoes scores of 92% critics and 82% audience.
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