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The first round of box office projections are in for Warner Bros “The Flash,” and after a year of struggles for DC movies, Andy Muschietti’s time-warping film may bring a box office rebound, though initial projections are not as big as some theater owners and box office observers hoped.
Three weeks away from release, projections have “The Flash” earning an opening of at least $75 million, lower than the $134 million opening of Matt Reeves’ “The Batman” in March 2022 but better than the $67 million opening of “Black Adam” and way better than the abysmal $30.1 million opening of “Shazam!: Fury of the Gods.” Rival distributors tell TheWrap they expect projections to increase as the film’s June 16 release date gets closer.
Both publicly and privately, Warner Bros. executives have shown immense confidence in “The Flash.” Studio insiders have told TheWrap that the film has received rave scores from audience test screenings, and the film’s first public screening at CinemaCon last month was met with positive reception from movie theater owners.
The question as marketing for the film ramps up is whether the film can build enough audience word of mouth — along with Gen X nostalgia for Michael Keaton as Batman — to get fans excited for this blockbuster starring Ezra Miller as The Flash, as he uses his powers to prevent the death of his mother but creates a catastrophe that threatens to destroy the multiverse.
The film will need good reviews from both audiences and critics, as the weak reception for “Black Adam” and “Shazam 2,” combined with James Gunn’s upcoming reboot of DC Studios, has taken a blow to mainstream audience interest in this franchise. Further complicating things is Miller’s public outbursts and run-ins with the law, which happened last year after production on “The Flash” — which included reshoots — was completed.
Usually, mainstream audiences aren’t familiar with an actor’s personal scandals to the point that it has a box office impact, but it’s difficult to predict whether Miller’s publicized arrests and history of erratic and violent behavior will influence how the public talks about the film. Miller’s performance takes up a greater degree of “The Flash” than one would even expect for the lead star of a superhero film, as he spends much of its runtime playing both Barry Allen and an alternate timeline version of Barry interacting with each other.
“The Flash” will also come out during a crowded period for theaters, sharing a June 16 release date with the family-focused Pixar film “Elemental” and hitting theaters one week after Paramount’s “Transformers: Rise of the Beasts.” “The Flash” will have a second weekend free of any serious competition — Wes Anderson’s “Asteroid City” is the top release on June 23 — before Disney releases “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” on June 30.
