In a long season that’s been hard to endure and hard to predict, here are our best guesses in all 23 categories. Go here for my complete analysis in each race.
BEST PICTURE
Predicted nominees:
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” •
“Mank” •
“Minari” •
“News of the World” •
“Nomadland” •
“One Night in Miami” •
“Promising Young Woman” •
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
If there are nine nominees:
“Sound of Metal”
If there are 10:
“Judas and the Black Messiah”
Watch out for: “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm,” “The Father,” “Soul”
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted nominees:
Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari” •
Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman” •
David Fincher, “Mank” •
Aaron Sorkin, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” •
Chloe Zhao, “Nomadland” •
Watch out for: Paul Greengrass, “News of the World”; Regina King, “One Night in Miami”; Spike Lee, “Da 5 Bloods”
BEST ACTOR
Predicted nominees:
Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal” •
Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” •
Anthony Hopkins, “The Father” •
Mads Mikkelsen, “Another Round” •
Gary Oldman, “Mank”
Watch out for: Delroy Lindo, “Da 5 Bloods”; Tahar Rahim, “The Mauritanian”; Steven Yeun, “Minari”
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted nominees:
Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” •
Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday” •
Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman” •
Frances McDormand, “Nomadland” •
Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”
Watch out for: Yeri Han, “Minari,” Sophia Loren, “The Life Ahead,” Zendaya, “Malcolm & Marie”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” •
Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah” •
Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami” •
Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal” •
David Strathairn, “Nomadland”
Watch out for: Chadwick Boseman, “Da 5 Bloods”; Jared Leto, “The Little Things”; Alan Kim, “Minari”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted nominees:
Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” •
Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy” •
Olivia Colman, “The Father” •
Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari” •
Helena Zengel, “News of the World”
Watch out for: Ellen Burstyn, “Pieces of a Woman”; Jodie Foster, “The Mauritanian”; Amanda Seyfried, “Mank”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted nominees:
“Mank” •
“Minari” •
“Promising Young Woman” •
“Sound of Metal” •
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Watch out for: “The Forty-Year-Old Version,” “Judas and the Black Messiah,” “Soul”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted nominees:
“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” •
“The Father” •
“News of the World” •
“Nomadland” •
“One Night in Miami”
Watch out for: “I’m Thinking of Ending Things,” “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” “The White Tiger”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted nominees:
“Mank” •
“News of the World” •
“Nomadland” •
“Tenet” •
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Watch out for: “Da 5 Bloods,” “Judas and the Black Messiah,” “Minari”
BEST FILM EDITING
Predicted nominees:
“Mank” •
“Minari” •
“Nomadland” •
“Sound of Metal” •
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Watch out for: “News of the World,” “Promising Young Woman,” “Tenet”
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predicted nominees:
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” •
“Mank” •
“Mulan” •
“News of the World” •
“Tenet”
Watch out for: “The Father,” “The Midnight Sky,” “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted nominees:
“Emma.” •
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” •
“Mank” •
“News of the World” •
“Promising Young Woman”
Watch out for: “Ammonite,” “Mulan,” “One Night in Miami”
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Predicted nominees:
“Birds of Prey” •
“Hillbilly Elegy” •
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” •
“Mank” •
“Pinocchio”
Watch out for: “Emma,” “The Glorias,” “One Night in Miami”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Predicted nominees:
“Mank” •
“The Midnight Sky” •
“Minari” •
“News of the World” •
“Soul”
Watch out for: “Blizzard of Souls,” “Da 5 Bloods,” “Tenet”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Predicted nominees:
“Hear My Voice” from “The Trial of the Chicago 7” •
“Husavik” from “Eurovision Song Contest” •
“Io Si (Seen)” from “The Life Ahead” •
“Never Break” from “Giving Voice” •
“Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami”
Watch out for: “Fight for You” from “Judas and the Black Messiah”; “Loyal Brave True” from “Mulan”; “Rain Song” from “Minari”
BEST SOUND
Predicted nominees:
“Mank” •
“News of the World” •
“Nomadland” •
“Soul” •
“Sound of Metal”
Watch out for: “Greyhound,” “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” “Tenet”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted nominees:
“Mank” •
“The Midnight Sky” •
“Mulan” •
“Tenet” •
“Welcome to Chechnya”
Watch out for: “Birds of Prey,” “The One and Only Ivan,” “Soul”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Predicted nominees:
“The Croods: A New Age” •
“Onward” •
“Over the Moon” •
“Soul” •
“Wolfwalkers”
Watch out for: “Earwig and the Witch,” “No. 7 Cherry Lane,” “A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon”
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Predicted nominees:
“Another Round,” Denmark •
“I’m No Longer Here,” Mexico •
“La Llorona,” Guatemala •
“The Man Who Sold His Skin,” Tunisia •
“Quo Vadis, Aida?,” Bosnia & Herzegovina
Watch out for: “Dear Comrades!,” Russia; “Night of the Kings,” Ivory Coast; “Two of Us,” France
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predicted nominees:
“Collective” •
“76 Days” •
“Time” •
“The Truffle Hunters” •
“Welcome to Chechnya”
Watch out for: “Crip Camp,” “Dick Johnson Is Dead,” “Gunda”
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Predicted nominees:
“Colette” •
“A Concerto is a Conversation” •
“Hunger Ward” •
“Hysterical Girl” •
“A Love Song for Latasha”
Watch out for: “Abortion Helpline, This Is Lisa,” “Do Not Split,” “What Would Sophia Loren Do?”
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Predicted nominees:
“Genius Loci” •
“If Anything Happens I Love You” •
“Opera” •
“Out” •
“The Snail and the Whale”
But watch for: “Kapaemahu,” “To Gerard,” “Yes-People”
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Predicted nominees:
“Da Yie” •
“Feeling Through” •
“The Human Voice” •
“The Letter Room” •
“Two Distant Strangers”
Watch out for: “The Present,” “The Van,” “White Eye”
