The Oscar races usually start out wide open and narrow as the season goes along, until as the show approaches we have a pretty good idea of who’s going to win what. But this year has been a completely anomaly, with races getting harder to call as the show got closer.
And the Hollywood guild awards, which usually make things clearer, were all over the map this year: “Green Book” won the Producers Guild, “Roma” the Directors Guild, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” and “Eighth Grade” the Writers Guild, “Black Panther” the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award. That kind of spread had never happened before, and it makes this the most confounding Oscar race in memory.