Disney’s “Moana 2” is rapidly growing into a box office tsunami, earning a jaw-dropping $57.5 million opening day on Wednesday from 4,200 locations as it is now has a strong chance to earn the first ever $200 million-plus 5-day launch on Thanksgiving weekend.
Disney is keeping its own estimates lower given that there’s a long way to go over this holiday weekend, projecting a $175 million-plus extended start. But even that will blow by the Thanksgiving 5-day record of $125 million set by “Frozen II” in 2019 even after inflation adjustment.
That $59 million includes a Disney Animation record $13.8 million from Tuesday preview screenings, but even without that, “Moana 2” has now earned more money than any animated film has ever earned on a Wednesday, breaking the $31.7 million record set by “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” last year. It also stand among the top 5 highest Wednesdays ever in box office history.
Over the two previous Thanksgivings, Disney Animation suffered a pair of its worst runs ever with “Strange World” and “Wish,” but now has a chance to push “Moana 2” to its third $1 billion-plus hit of 2024, joining Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” and Marvel’s “Deadpool & Wolverine.”
To truly grasp how dramatic a turnaround Disney has pulled off, consider this: In its opening day alone, “Moana 2” has eclipsed the entire $37.9 million domestic theatrical run of “Strange World” in 2022, and has nearly surpassed the $63.9 million run of “Wish” in 2023.
The only slight blemish on this launch is that “Moana 2,” while still enjoying largely positive reception, isn’t proving to be as well received as its 2016 predecessor with an A- on CinemaScore and Rotten Tomatoes scores of 66% critics and 88% audience. By comparison, “Moana” earned an A on CinemaScore and RT scores of 95% critics and 89% audience.
This may put a damper on general audience turnout in the weeks ahead, but given the wild popularity of “Moana” among kids, Disney should see continued strong family turnout all the way to pre-Christmas weekend, when Paramount releases “Sonic the Hedgehog 3.”
Meanwhile, the incredible launch of “Moana 2” is doing nothing to stop Universal’s “Wicked,” which earned a strong $20.4 million in its first Wednesday in theaters. While estimates can still change significantly over the course of the weekend, the Oz musical is currently projected to earn $97 million over five days, which would be among the top 3 highest ever 5-day Thanksgiving totals before inflation adjustment.
“Wicked” will have close to $250 million in domestic grosses after two weekends, and with its status as the film with the strongest audience reception scores in theaters, it is well on its way to a $400 million-plus run in North America. Should it get there, it would be the sixth Universal release to cross that milestone before inflation.
