JPMorgan is predicting that the U.S. and potentially the global economy could be pushed into a recession if Trump’s reciprocal tariffs remain in place.
“The risk of recession in the global economy this year is raised to 60%, up from 40%,” JPMorgan chief economist Bruce Kasman said Thursday in a note to clients titled “There Will Be Blood.”
Kasman warned that the impact of the tariffs, which he referred to as the largest tax hike on U.S. households and businesses since 1968, would likely be magnified through retaliation, a slide in U.S. business sentiment and supply chain disruptions.
“We are not making immediate changes to our forecasts and want to see the initial implementation and negotiation process that takes hold,” he added.