J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer and Co. and conductor of the Iowa Poll, announced her retirement Sunday in an op-ed published in the Des Moines Register. Selzer explained that she made the decision to retire “over a year ago” and added, “My integrity means a lot to me. To those who have questioned it, there are likely no words to dissuade.”
“Public opinion polling has been my life’s work,” Selzer wrote. “I collected my first research data as a freshman in college, if you don’t count a neighborhood poll I did at age 5. I’ve always been fascinated with what a person could learn from a scientific sample of a meaningful universe.”
“Beyond election polls, my favorite projects were helping clients learn something they did not know to help them evaluate options for their companies, institutions or causes. That work may well continue, but I knew a few years ago that the election polling part of my career was headed to a close.”
“Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities.”
“Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course. It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite. I am proud of the work I’ve done for the Register, for the Detroit Free Press, for the Indianapolis Star, for Bloomberg News and for other public and private organizations interested in elections. They were great clients and were happy with my work. ”
“There were shocking polls for each, to be sure. In the end, my findings looked good. Over 30 years of polling led to an A+ rating in Nate Silver’s analysis of pollsters’ track records of accuracy. I earned that rating in Silver’s first list, and my grade never dropped. Maybe that history of accuracy made the outlier position too comfortable.”
“Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I’m humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings.”
“My work will continue for current clients and for clients yet to come. In addition, I’m thinking about how to put other talents to work for the benefit of new clients.”
“My integrity means a lot to me. To those who have questioned it, there are likely no words to dissuade. For those who know me best, I appreciate the supportive notes and calls reminding me that what drew me to them as friends, colleagues and clients was commitment to truth and accuracy — both in my professional and my personal relationships.”
“That is part of my DNA, and I intend to protect and preserve that heart of me.”
The Register’s final poll before Election Day indicated Kamala Harris was leading Donald Trump 47-44% among people likely to vote in Iowa, and in turn raised hopes among Democrats that Harris would win the election. Other polls in the state indicated Trump had a sizable lead, and he won the state by 13 points.
Selzer’s poll was described as “shocking” by polling analyst Nate Silver, who wrote on his blog the Silver Bulletin that she “has a long history of bucking the conventional wisdom and being right. In a world where most pollsters have a lot of egg on their faces, she has near-oracular status.”
“Releasing this poll took an incredible amount of guts because — let me state this as carefully as I can — if you had to play the odds, this time Selzer will probably be wrong,” he added.
The Iowa Poll was founded in 1943. Selzer, who was part of the Register’s staff in 1987, took over as head of the poll. In 1997, Selzer & Co. began conducting the poll on a contract basis.
