With Netflix’s revised all-cash offer for Warner Bros. Discovery looking increasingly likely barring regulatory hurdles, much of the industry discussion has centered on balance sheets, regulatory scrutiny and corporate scale.
That macro view is important. We’ve previously highlighted how a Netflix-WBD merger would beat out Disney to create a new market leader in terms of demand for shows. But there is a second, equally important layer to this story: audience behavior and what that would mean for any potential combination of these companies’ streaming services.
Parrot Analytics’ Audience Journey data shows a granular view of what audiences are actually watching across platforms. This helps us understand the implications of bundling platforms together and what that means for subscriber retention.
As of December, Netflix actually had the lowest audience overlap with HBO Max among major platforms in the U.S., with 11.6% of people who watched a title available on Netflix going on to watch something on HBO Max. Viewers who watch titles on Netflix are less likely to go on and watch a title on HBO Max than viewers coming from Peacock, Apple TV+, Paramount+, Hulu or HBO Max itself.
How Will HBO Change Under Netflix?
At first glance, that may sound like a drawback. In reality, it highlights a key strategic advantage.
A smaller audience overlap means a combined Netflix + HBO Max offering would deliver a larger incremental audience than many other potential bundles. Rather than concentrating the same viewers across platforms, such a combination would meaningfully expand the number of households exposed to both catalogs.
Of course, incremental reach does not automatically translate into engagement. The smaller audience overlap between these two platforms means a combined platform would need to work harder to convert access into viewing. Discovery, recommendations and franchise “on-ramps” would play an outsized role in bridging these distinct audience behaviors.
The opportunity is real, but it would require deliberate execution to unlock its full value.
Netflix has already positioned itself as the must-have platform that anchors many consumers’ streaming rotation while they hop between other platforms. Netflix has done a good job of leveraging its scale into a market-leading low churn rate. A combination of Netflix and HBO Max would create a new market leader, beating out the Disney+ Hulu bundle in terms of total demand for all content on-platform.
The sheer scale of a combined catalog across these two services would go a long way toward reinforcing Netflix’s position as the must-have, always-subscribed-to platform.
