The first round of box office projections for Disney/Lucasfilm’s “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” have arrived, and they are predicting a significant drop from the film’s 2008 predecessor “Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” with an opening weekend of around $60 million.
By comparison, “Crystal Skull,” which opened on the Thursday before Memorial Day 15 years ago, earned a Fri.-Sun. opening of $100 million, going on to gross $317 million domestic and $790 million worldwide.
Box office analysts who spoke to TheWrap say the film’s early tracking in the U.S. is more reminiscent of the James Bond film “No Time to Die,” which opened to $55 million in October 2021 and finished with $160 million domestic and $774 million globally. Another comp being used is “Mission: Impossible — Fallout,” which opened to $61.2 million in summer 2018 and grossed $220 million domestic and $790 million worldwide against a reported $178 million production budget before marketing.
Like those two films, sources say that “Dial of Destiny” is tracking well among older audiences who grew up seeing Harrison Ford as Indy, but not so much among audiences under 35 for whom “Crystal Skull” is the only “Indy” movie that was released in theaters in their lifetime. As always, tracking can change between now and the film’s release, but Disney has work to do building buzz for the movie among that core demographic.
Making that mission harder are the very mixed reviews that “Dial of Destiny” received from its world premiere at the Cannes Film Festival. Currently, the film has a 50% Rotten Tomatoes score from 46 logged reviews, most of which came from press screenings at the festival.
It’s possible that later reviews may be more favorable to “Indy,” and “Crystal Skull” was able to ride good-but-not-great critical and audience reception (77% Rotten Tomatoes score and B on CinemaScore) to a long box office run.
But with a reported $295 million production budget before marketing, “Dial of Destiny” has to gain traction across demographics, not just nostalgic boomers and Gen Xers, in order to turn a theatrical profit.
“Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” hits theaters on June 30.
