The 2024 global box office is expected to do a little better than previously projected but will still be down from last year, according to new projections from theatrical exhibition consulting firm Gower Street Analytics.
The firm now projects a final global box office total of $32.3 billion, a slight uptick from the $31.5 billion it projected at the start of the year but down about 3% from the $39.9 billion grossed in 2023 based on current exchange rates. It would also be 18% lower than the average of the global box office totals between 2017-19.
“Actuals for Q1 were 1% ahead of our projections in the Domestic market and in China. For the International market (exc. China) they were 11% ahead of our estimates,” Gower Street wrote. “There have also been a number of changes to the 2024 release calendar since our first projection was announced in December and overall gains in our estimate can primarily be attributed to titles that have been added to the release calendar.”
The only market expected to see a year-over-year increase from 2023 is China, which Gower Street is tracking to be 6% ahead of the year-to-date pace compared to last year. According to film consulting firm Artisan Gateway, the 2024 Chinese box office has reached $2.3 billion so far this year, compared to $1.47 billion in the U.S. and Canada.
A downtick in box office grosses was expected this year due to production delays caused by the Hollywood double strike last year and a lack of major blockbusters on the level of recent hits like “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” and “Barbie.” Exhibition sources have told TheWrap that 2025 is seen as a potential rebound year with higher profile tentpoles and a greater quantity of theatrical titles on the slate.
