Don't Expect a Cowell Replacement at Upfronts

Those expecting Fox to announce a replacement for departing "American Idol" judge Simon Cowell during its upfront programming presentation to advertisers on May 17 may be disappointed.
Insiders at the broadcast network say there is no rush to announce the new judge, even though negotiations to buy advertising on the show will begin following the presentation.
"There is no pressure to make an announcement at the upfront presentation," said an individual at Fox close to the show. "We want to do this the right way. We have no deadline."
In fact, as of right now, Fox is pondering not making an announcement about who Cowell’s replacement will be even during this season’s American Idol finale which airs the week following the network’s upfront presentation, on May 26.
"That could change, but right now our primary focus is to finish up this season," the insider said. "We are not going to be distracted by arbitrary deadlines."
The insider said not making an announcement before the upfront presentation or end of "Idol’s" run this season is not an indication that the network is in a quandry over who the replacement will be. The feeling at Fox, he said, is that Idol "has a lot of life left in it, regardless of who the new judge is, and that smart advertisers will believe that and understand us taking our time and doing this right."
Fox announced in January that Cowell would be leaving Idol after this season, but would returning as executive producer and a judge in the fall of 2011 on another talent competition show, X Factor, which he produces in the U.K.
Cowell, with his no-holds-barred critiques of "Idol" contestants, has clearly been a major draw of viewers over the show’s 10 seasons, and many media buyers feel strongly about that.
"Simon Cowell is the lynch pin of the show," said Tom Weeks, senior VP at Starcom Entertainment. "People are not watching the show to see Ryan Seacrest."
Although ratings for "Idol" are down this season, and the show has been beaten in the ratings by NBC’s Winter Olympics telecasts and by some ABC "Dancing With the Stars" epidsodes, it is still a continual ratings juggernaut throughout the season, averaging more than 20 million viewers per telecast.
Regardless of who the Cowell replacement is, it doesn’t seem like major sponsors AT&T, Ford or Coca Cola will give up those sponsorships, because other than ABC’s "DWTS," no other show on television draws the number of viewers week after week that Idol does.
And Fox’s strategy of taking its time to announce a replacement, even if they have to begin selling advertising for next season’s show without the new Cowell identified, may be a sound one according to some media buyers.
"It’s not a big concern as to how they’ll resolve this," said Peter Gardiner, managing partner and chief media officer for Deutsch.
And Starcom Entertainment’s Weeks added, "The show will still have legs next season and I’ll sure Fox will be creative in who they get to replace Simon."
Some media buyers believe it doesn’t matter who replaces Simon, that the strong viewership of the show will continue without him.
"’Idol’ will still be about the competition," said Christine Merrifield, senior VP and director of video investment and activation at MediaVest. "If you look at the success many of the contestants had after leaving Idol, Simon had nothing to do with their careers after show. The contestants carry the show."
But will Fox still be able to command the $650,000 per 30-second commercial that it got this season on "Idol" without the star power of Cowell?
"It will be a matter of negotiation to decide what the right price for our clients will be in the upcoming upfront," said Aaron Cohen, executive VP and chief media negotiating officer at Horizon Media. "Let’s just say the negotiations with Fox for ‘American Idol’ will be a bit more disagreeable this time."

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