CinemaCon, the annual gathering of movie theater owners, might have been a time where the movie theater industry celebrated a spectacular 2018 box office. Instead, the industry is heading to Las Vegas with questions surrounding the uncertain future of the theatrical window and the future of cinema.
Some Hollywood studios are fighting to turn around declining box office numbers, while more successful ones are preparing to launch additional streaming services that threaten to take away time and money that might be spent at the cinema.
Together, they create a climate of uncertainty that will create some uneasy talks over drinks at Caesar’s Palace. Here are some of the main topics that will definitely be touched upon at CinemaCon through April 4:
1. The Giant Mouse in the RoomFor Disney chairman Alan Horn, CinemaCon will be his first major industry appearance since the completion of its acquisition of most of 20th Century Fox. With layoffs still coming down the pipeline and Disney’s distribution team still sorting out the Fox release slate it just inherited, it’s uncertain just how much of a presence Fox’s lineup will have during Disney’s presentation… though Fox vice chair Emma Watts is expected to say a few words as the most senior member of the studio to make the merger transition.
Even without the Fox intrigue, there are a lot of signs that Disney’s relationship with movie theaters is at a turning point. It now has a market share of up to 40 percent and could very well gross $4 billion domestically by year’s end. Disney will show off several of the films that will help get it to that benchmark, including live-action “The Lion King” and “Avengers: Endgame.”
But even as Disney has protected the theatrical window with the biggest blockbusters of the year, will they be able to reassure exhibitors that it will continue to respect that window even as the company’s attention turns to its own streaming service that launches this fall?
2. Lost Lionsgate
At last year’s CinemaCon, we questioned whether Lionsgate still has an identity. Twelve months later, that question still hasn’t been answered. The riches of 2018’s box office did not extend to this studio, which only grossed $388 million — a 56 percent fall from 2017.
While “A Madea Family Funeral” found some modest profits this winter, the R-rated “Hellboy” remake isn’t expected to open to above $35 million next weekend and has a limited shelf life before “Avengers” takes over the minds of comic book fans everywhere.
So what’s Lionsgate relying on to turn things around? Look for them to heavily feature Keanu Reeves’ “John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum,” one of the few reliable franchises the studio still has. They also will likely bring out “Rambo: Last Blood,” Sylvester Stallone’s farewell to the character that made him an action icon. The Guillermo del Toro-produced “Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark” will try to attract millennials who grew up on the macabre horror books on which its based, while “Star Wars” director Rian Johnson could give Lionsgate an awards play with the star-studded “Knives Out.”
3. Welcome to the Club, Netflix
“Roma” may not have won the top prize at the Oscars, but it’s clear that its distributor, Netflix, is here to stay. The top streamer in Hollywood is now a member of the Motion Picture Association of America and is planning to give Martin Scorsese’s “The Irishman” and several other films the theatrical treatment.
But Netflix’s handling of “Roma” irked many exhibitors and rival distributors. The company refused to release box office numbers, and several nationwide theater chains would not screen the film because of Netflix’s plan to put the film out on streaming just two weeks after it hit theaters.
All of that was before the MPAA welcomed Netflix into its ranks, which means there will be pressure on the lobbying organization to get Netflix to play by the same rules as its other studio members. The same will be the case for any other streamer that wants to release in theaters, including Amazon, which for the past few years has abided by the traditional theatrical window but is now hinting at following Netflix’s example under new entertainment president Jennifer Salke.
4. The Streamers Are Coming
It’s not just Netflix, Amazon Prime and Disney+ fighting in the streamer market. Last week, Apple lifted the curtain on its streaming service, and WarnerMedia will soon be jumping in with their own service as well.
For exhibitors, that means more competition for consumers’ time and attention, though the MPAA and the National Association of Theatre Owners is trying to assure them that this is not the case. NATO President John Fithian has pointed to a 2017 study that showed that frequent moviegoers also spend more than 15 hours a week on streaming, arguing that movie lovers will see films across multiple platforms. But will consumers who subscribe to more and more streaming services have enough left in their wallets to be regular moviegoers? With directors like Spike Lee, Martin Scorsese and even Steven Spielberg announcing they will commit time to developing projects for streamers, will filmmaker interest in streaming platforms lead those platforms to take a larger push against the theatrical window?