Friday update:
Disney's "Tron" got off to a nice start Friday morning, with early estimates of around 1,000 midnight shows putting the film in the "$3.5 million neighborhood," according to a studio executive.
Estimates are still being tabulated. Official numbers will be released shortly.
That performance is on par with Warner's "Inception," which grossed around $3 million opening at a similar number of midnight locations last July.
Fox's "Avatar," meanwhile, grossed about $3.5 million opening at around 2,000 locations a year ago.
IMAX distribution played a huge role in all three midnight stars. "Tron" opened at 228 IMAX locations. More to come…
Thursday preview:
As reconstitutions of 1982 cult hits with dubious commercial success go, a $50 million weekend ain't bad.
And that's exactly what's expected of Disney's "Tron: Legacy," with the sci-fi action movie set to open in 3,451 theaters, 2,424 of them offering the movie in 3D.
A sequel to 1982's "Tron" — which broke moviemaking ground, but not box office records — "Legacy" will likely lead a domestic market that will also see the premiers of Warner's also-3D "Yogi Bear" and Sony's James L. Brooks ensemble comedic-drama "How Do You Know (pictured below)."
As for adult dramas, Lionsgate's not-so-uplifting child-death drama "Rabbit Hole," starring Nicole Kidman and Aaron Eckhart, will open up in five theaters in L.A, New York and Toronto, while Jack Abramoff biopic "Casino Jack," starring Kevin Spacey, will also make a limited L.A./NYC debut.
Relativity/Paramount's Golden Globe-beloved "The Fighter" (going up from four to 2,503 locations) and Fox Searchlight's "Black Swan" (90 to 953 theaters) will undergo major expansions.
But the big story this weekend is Disney's "Tron: Legacy," which comes in with a rookie director (Joseph Kosinski), middling reviews (52 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) and a robust $170 million production budget, not to mention a global marketing bill that's estimated to exceed $150 million.
Given those financial factors, a $50 million start wouldn't be spectactular. However, given the huge over-performance of Disney's 3D-animated "Tangled" over Thanksgiving, a bigger opening is hoped for by the studio.
"If you look at what has happened in recent weeks to 'Narnia' and 'Tangled,' you know the tracking hasn't been all that accurate lately," noted Disney distribution president Chuck Viane.
(Fox's "The Chronices of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader" actually missed tracking by more thn $10 million last weekend.)
With the competition for 3D screens heating up — holdovers "Tangled" and "Narnia 3" are using up screens, too — Warner was also able to get solid distribution for "Yogi Bear," with the film debuting in 2,011 3D-equipped locations out of a total of 3,515 North American theaters.
Having spent about $80 million to produce the PG-rated Eric Brevig-directed comedy, Warner is hoping to gross at least $20 million this weekend.
"We believe this will be the first choice for parents to take their children to the movies over the holidays," said Warner distribution chief Dan Fellman. "And I think a $20 million wekend will get us to $100 million by the end of its run."
Facing a tougher climb will be Sony's Brooks-written and -directed "How Do You Know," a $100 million comedy-drama that features Jack Nicholson, Paul Rudd, Reese Witherspoon and Owen Wilson performing for standard A-list rates.
An opening of over $12.6 million would top Brooks' best start ever (established in '97 for "As Good As It Gets"). But the PG-13-rated movie, which opens up in 2,483 North American theaters and arrives with a nasty 28 percent Rotten Tomatoes score, will have to seriously play well over the holidays for Sony to make any money on it.
