Never bet against James Cameron. Despite the freezing weather that has gripped much of North America — especially the Great Lakes — that led to a drop in box office projections, 20th Century’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” had a strong Sunday and Monday and finished the four-day Christmas weekend with a $95.5 million domestic total and an overall total of $955 million worldwide, passing the run of “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” in just 11 days.
That figure nearly matches the $96 million four-day Christmas weekend total that “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” earned in 2016, the last year when Christmas Day fell on a Sunday and hits the top end of the $85 million-95 million projections that had been set for “Avatar 2” before winter storms sent temperatures plummeting in much of the U.S. and Canada.
As the winter storm grew worse across the country toward the end of last week and daily grosses for “Avatar 2” between Thursday and Saturday slid below $20 million, four-day industry estimates slid down to $82 million; still a good second weekend number for a holiday blockbuster but not what was expected for a film with a $400 million-plus budget that’s a sequel to one of the longest-lasting films in modern box office history.
The Making of ‘Avatar: The Way of Water’
But on Christmas Day, moviegoers came back to Pandora with a stronger-than-expected $29.5 million second Sunday gross, just a 20% drop from its first Sunday in release. Monday was even better with a $31.5 million total, bringing its overall domestic cume to $293.2 million, just 5% behind the $308 million grossed this summer by “Top Gun: Maverick” through 11 days in theaters.
Overseas, “The Way of Water” is doing just as strong with $52.2 million grossed internationally on Monday. France in particular has become a very strong market for the film, with admissions over Christmas weekend dropping just 1% from opening weekend. With a $60.5 million running total, France has now passed South Korea as the second highest international market for “Avatar 2,” sitting only behind the $104.5 million grossed by a COVID-stricken China.
Sometime this week, “Avatar: The Way of Water” will join “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Jurassic World: Dominion” as the fourth post-shutdown film to gross $1 billion worldwide, with all signs pointing to it reaching $1.5 billion sometime in January and becoming the highest-grossing release of 2022.
With almost no major studio releases coming in January, the collapse of the awards season box office and Universal/DreamWorks’ “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” standing as the only Christmas weekend release with a likely chance of legging out, theaters will be relying on “Avatar 2” to have the same enduring power as its 2009 predecessor to keep revenue coming in, at least until Marvel Studios’ “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” comes out in mid-February.