For a change, the Screen Actors Guild Awards will be the last of the four major guilds to hand out prizes this year, bringing up the rear on a calendar that also included the Directors Guild and Producers Guild on Feb. 8 and the Writers Guild on Feb. 15. By the time the SAG Awards arrive on Feb. 23, some of the burning questions that have hung over this awards season might have been answered (“Anora” swept the DGA, PGA and WGA awards), but others will still be looming.
For instance: Could “Wicked” pull off a sweep at the SAG Awards, potentially halting “Anora’s” Oscar frontrunner status, and boost its own Best Picture chances?
The ingredients are certainly in place. Director Jon M. Chu’s musical blockbuster was the most-nominated film by SAG with five nods, anointing it as the favorite among actors — who, by the way, make up the largest Oscars voting body at the Academy. It’s a tell-tale sign that the movie, which has earned more than $725 million at the global box office since its November 2024 release, has achieved the rare triple threat: equally beloved by critics, moviegoers and awards voters. With nominations for best ensemble, lead actress (Cynthia Erivo), supporting actress (Ariana Grande), supporting actor (Jonathan Bailey) and the stunt team, SAG gives the film its best shot at a late Oscar surge.
It’s worth noting, though, that the SAG Awards are taking place five days after Oscar voting ended, which means that SAG can’t give any film or performance momentum that will influence the voting; all it can do is reflect that the Academy’s Actors Branch might have been thinking when its members voted.
Still, perceptions could change if “Wicked” converts any of its five nominations into wins. (No film has ever collected more than four SAG Awards.) Four of the last five SAG ensemble winners have correctly forecast the eventual Best Picture Oscar winner: “Oppenheimer” (2024), “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (2023), “CODA” (2022) and “Parasite “(2020). (The one exception was “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” which won the ensemble award in 2021 when the Oscar Best Picture winner was “Nomadland,” not even nominated by SAG.)
“Wicked” could become the first musical to take home the ensemble award in the 22 years since “Chicago,” which went on to win the Oscar for Best Picture. The four other nominated casts are also Best Picture contenders — “A Complete Unknown,” “Anora,” “Conclave” and Emilia Pérez” — making it a key race to watch.
Almost all of the film acting categories are near carbon copies of their Oscar equivalents, save for a handful of notable swaps. “Queer’s” Daniel Craig snuck in for lead actor over “The Apprentice’s” Sebastian Stan, who scored an Oscar nomination; “The Last Showgirl’s” Pamela Anderson took “I’m Still Here’s” Fernanda Torres’ lead actress slot; and the 2,000-plus actors on the SAG nominating committee preferred Bailey’s theatrical “Wicked” performance as Fiyero to “The Brutalist’s” Guy Pearce as an unsavory tycoon. Supporting actresses Jamie Lee Curtis (“The Last Showgirl”) and Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”) gained favor with their acting peers, who voted them in over Academy Award nominees Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”) and Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”).
It’s safe to presume that whoever is crowned champion in the film acting categories will have a good shot at the Oscar. It’s a question of whether SAG-AFTRA members will want to reward arthouse performances (“The Brutalist,” “The Substance”) over populist musical favorites (“Wicked,” “A Complete Unknown”), or vice versa. For this reason, Adrien Brody’s biggest competition may be Timothée Chalamet for best actor, and Edward Norton (or even Bailey) could give Kieran Culkin a scare for supporting actor. If “Wicked” turns out to be the evening’s top preference, Demi Moore could fall to Erivo for best actress and Zoe Saldaña may concede to Grande in supporting, though both of those are serious longshots.
On the television side, there are far fewer surprises. Familiar frontrunners from “Shōgun” (which topped all television nominees with five nods), “The Bear,” “Hacks,” “Abbott Elementary,” “Only Murders in the Building” and “Baby Reindeer” populate the acting categories, keeping in line with recent Emmy and Golden Globe winners. (The SAG Awards do not differentiate between lead and supporting performances for television, sometimes creating a unique hodgepodge of nominees.)
Awards darlings such as “Shōgun’s” Anna Sawai and Hiroyuki Sanada are heavily favored in the drama categories (though Sanada will have to contend with his Golden Globe-winning co-star Tadanobu Asano). “Hacks’” Jean Smart and “The Bear’s” Ayo Edebiri, the last two comedy actress winners, will likely face off for the hardware. A big night may also be in store for “The Bear’s” Jeremy Allen White, who could collect his third straight comedy actor award and become only the second actor to three-peat (after Alec Baldwin, who won a remarkable seven in a row for “30 Rock”).
The same can be said for “True Detective’s” Jodie Foster, following her Emmy and Golden Globe victories, and “The Penguin’s” Colin Farrell, whose recent Golden Globe win may signal a passing of the baton from “Baby Reindeer’s” Richard Gadd in limited series.
If there are any potential takeaways with Emmy season right around the corner, it’s that voters seem particularly high on new awards entries such as Peacock’s international thriller “The Day of the Jackal” and Netflix’s romantic comedy “Nobody Wants This.” Both series earned multiple Golden Globe nods in January and have two apiece from SAG.
Spoilers, of course, are always on the table.
Keri Russell or Kathy Bates besting Sawai? Eddie Redmayne or Gary Oldman over Sanada? “Nobody Wants This’” Kristen Bell (who is also hosting the show) and Adam Brody dominating the comedy categories? The “Bridgerton” cast pulling off an upset over “Shōgun”? Harrison Ford winning for the first time?
The SAG Awards aren’t known for shocks, at least not since Johnny Depp won for “Pirates of the Caribbean” in 2004 — but when 120,000+ actors are voting, you never know.
The 31st annual Screen Actors Guild Awards stream live Sunday, Feb. 23 at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET on Netflix.
