
TheWrap’s Awards Tracker uses a proprietary algorithm built on 25 years of awards history to forecast Academy Awards outcomes across eight major categories. Updated in real time after Oscar nominations on Jan. 22, it maps how early nominations and wins at shows like the Golden Globes, DGA, and BAFTA impact their chances of Academy Award glory. Learn more about the methodology here.
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Best Picture
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One Battle After Another
Probability: 66.67% Up: 16.67%Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
Wins: GG, Critics Choice
“One Battle After Another” marks the third consecutive Best Picture nominee for director Paul Thomas Anderson following “Licorice Pizza” and “Phantom Thread.”
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Sinners
Probability: 33% Up: 23.00%Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
22 other films this century have gotten the same Best Picture nominations and wins as “Sinners.” Only one (“The King’s Speech”) won Best Picture. That being said, Two of the three films that previously held the nomination record (“All About Eve” and “Titanic”) won Best Picture.
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Marty Supreme
Probability: 25% Up: 15.91%Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
Timothée Chalamet has now starred in eight Best Picture nominees across the past 10 Academy Awards ceremonies.
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Frankenstein
Probability: 25% Up: 15.00%Nominations: Oscars, SAG, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
Eight other films this century have gotten the same Best Picture nominations and wins as “Frankenstein.” Two (“Million Dollar Baby” and “CODA”) won the Oscar despite missing at the BAFTAs.
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Hamnet
Probability: 20% Up: 3.33%Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
Wins: GG
There are five films this century that, like “Hamnet,” got nominations at the Actor Awards, PGAs and BAFTAs, won Best Drama at the Globes and lost Best Picture at Critics Choice. Only one (“Moonlight”) won Best Picture at the Oscars.
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Train Dreams
Probability: 1% No change: 0%Nominations: Oscars, PGA, Critics Choice
Joel Edgerton last starred in a Best Picture nominee in 2012 (“Zero Dark Thirty”)
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Sentimental Value
Probability: 1% No change: 0%Nominations: Oscars, BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
Joachim Trier’s “The Worst Person in the World” picked up nominations for Best International Feature and Best Original Screenplay, but it was not recognized in Best Picture or any acting categories.
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The Secret Agent
Probability: 1% No change: 0%Nominations: Oscars, GG
Last year, “I’m Still Here” became the first Brazilian film and the first Portuguese-speaking film nominated for Best Picture. “The Secret Agent” is now the second.
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F1
Probability: 1% No change: 0%Nominations: Oscars, PGA
Read TheWrap’s coverage with the team behind “F1” here
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Bugonia
Probability: 1% No change: 0%Nominations: Oscars, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
“Bugonia” marks Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone’s third collaboration (following “The Favourite” and “Poor Things”) to get a Best Picture nomination.
Best Director
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Paul Thomas Anderson
One Battle After Another
Probability: 80% No change: 0%Nominations: Oscars, DGA, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
Wins: GG, Critics Choice
Prior to this year, Paul Thomas Anderson had been nominated for 11 Oscars. He won 0.
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Ryan Coogler
Sinners
Probability: 18.18% Up: 7.37%Nominations: Oscars, DGA, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
Despite his film “Black Panther” being the only MCU film to get a Best Picture nomination, “Sinners” marks Ryan Coogler’s first Best Director nod at the Academy Awards.
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Chloé Zhao
Hamnet
Probability: 18.18% Up: 7.37%Nominations: Oscars, DGA, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
After becoming only the second woman to win Best Director at the Oscars, Chloé Zhao could become the first to win twice.
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Josh Safdie
Marty Supreme
Probability: 14.29% Up: 5.96%Nominations: Oscars, DGA, BAFTA, Critics Choice
“Marty Supreme” marks Josh Safdie’s first solo directorial feature since his debut film. It also brings him his first Oscar nominations.
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Joachim Trier
Sentimental Value
Probability: 1% No change: 0%Nominations: Oscars, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
Joachim Trier picked up a screenplay nomination for “The Worst Person in the World,” but he missed out on Best Director.
Best Actress
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Jessie Buckley
Hamnet
Probability: 61.54% Down: -9.05%Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
Wins: GG, Critics Choice
“Hamnet” marks Jessie Buckley’s second Oscar nomination this decade following her Best Supporting Actress nomination for “The Lost Daughter.”
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Rose Byrne
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Probability: 55.56% Up: 10.11%Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
Wins: GG
Women are exactly half as likely to win Best Actress at the Oscars if they win Best Actress (Musical/Comedy) at the Golden Globes than they are if they win Best Actress (Drama).
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Emma Stone
Bugonia
Probability: 14.29% Up: 1.79%Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
Emma Stone and Sean Penn both have the opportunity to become the first actors to win three performance Oscars this century.
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Kate Hudson
Song Sung Blue
Probability: 1% No change: 0%Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, GG
Kate Hudson had not been nominated for an Oscar in the 25 years since her turn in “Almost Famous.”
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Renate Reinsve
Sentimental Value
Probability: 1% No change: 0%Nominations: Oscars, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
Renate Reinsve received much acclaim for her performance in her last collaboration with Joachim Trier, “The Worst Person in the World,” though she missed out on the Oscar nomination.
Best Actor
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Timothée Chalamet
Marty Supreme
Probability: 25% No change: 0%Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
Wins: GG, Critics Choice
Following Colman Domingo, Timothée Chalamet becomes the second person this decade nominated for Best Actor two years in a row.
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Michael B. Jordan
Sinners
Probability: 3.23% Up: 0.73%Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
Michael B. Jordan joins Nicolas Cage (“Adaptation”) and Lee Marvin (“Cat Ballou”) on the short list of actors nominated for playing identical twins.
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Wagner Moura
The Secret Agent
Probability: 1% No change: 0%Nominations: Oscars, GG, Critics Choice
Wins: GG
Wagner Moura finds himself in an interesting position. While roughly 65% of Best Actor (Drama) winners at the Golden Globes win Best Actor at the Academy Awards, no Best Actor winner at the Oscars has ever missed a nomination at the Actor Awards since its inception.
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Leonardo DiCaprio
One Battle After Another
Probability: 1% No change: 0%Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
Leonardo DiCaprio surpasses Denzel Washington and Bradley Cooper as the most-nominated male actor this century, with 6 nods since 2000.
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Ethan Hawke
Blue Moon
Probability: 1% No change: 0%Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
Ethan Hawke joins the five-timers club of Oscar nominees. Two of his prior nominations were for acting, while two were for screenwriting. Three of these previous four nominations were for Richard Linklater collaborations.
Best Supporting Actress
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Teyana Taylor
One Battle After Another
Probability: 25% No change: 0%Nominations: SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
Wins: GG
Teyana Taylor could join a short list of musicians who win acting awards at the Oscars.
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Wunmi Mosaku
Sinners
Probability: 20% Up: 8.89%Nominations: SAG, BAFTA, Critics Choice
Wunmi Mosaku won Outstanding Supporting Performance at the Gotham Film Awards.
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Amy Madigan
Weapons
Probability: 1% Down: -19%Nominations: SAG, GG, Critics Choice
Wins: Critics Choice
There are only two other supporting actresses this century who have gotten Oscar nominations, won at Critics Choice, lost at the Golden Globes and missed the BAFTAs entirely: Virginia Madsen (“Sideways”) and Amy Ryan (“Gone Baby Gone”). Neither won the Oscar.
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Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
Sentimental Value
Probability: 1% No change: 0%Nominations: BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (alongside Renate Reinsve) becomes the first Norwegian performer nominated for acting in Norwegian.
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Elle Fanning
Sentimental Value
Probability: 1% No change: 0%Nominations: GG, Critics Choice
Despite being nominated for numerous acting awards since she was a child, Elle Fanning has never gotten an Oscar nomination.
Best Supporting Actor
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Jacob Elordi
Frankenstein
Probability: 50% Up: 25%Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
Wins: Critics Choice
Jacob Elordi becomes the first actor to be nominated for playing the iconic role of Frankenstein’s Creature — a part taken on by the likes of Christopher Lee and Robert De Niro.
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Stellan Skarsgård
Sentimental Value
Probability: 11.54% Down: -3.84%Nominations: Oscars, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
Wins: GG
Stellan Skarsgård finds himself in a history-making position, as only two men this century have won Best Supporting Actor without getting an Actor Awards nomination: Benicio del Toro (“Traffic”) and Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained”). Like Skarsgård, both won the Golden Globe. Unlike Skarsgård, neither was nominated for Critics Choice. This puts Skarsgård in a small group of men (such as Sylvester Stallone in “Creed”) who saw varied nominations and big wins pre-Oscars but eventually missed out on the final prize.
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Sean Penn
One Battle After Another
Probability: 3.23% Down: -1.65%Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
Sean Penn and Emma Stone both have the opportunity to become the first actors to win three performance Oscars this century.
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Benicio del Toro
One Battle After Another
Probability: 3.23% Down: -1.65%Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
2026 marks 25 years since Benicio del Toro won his acting Oscar for 2001’s “Traffic.”
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Delroy Lindo
Sinners
Probability: 1% No change: 0%Nominations: Oscars
Delroy Lindo became the surprise of the morning when he got the Oscar nomination despite missing out at the Actor Awards, Golden Globes and Critics Choice.
Best Screenplay (Original)
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Sinners
Ryan Coogler
Probability: 33.33% Up: 4.06%Nominations: Oscars, BAFTA, WGA, GG, Critics Choice
Wins: Critics Choice
Ryan Coogler was nominated for two Oscars before “Sinners”: for producing “Judas and the Black Messiah,” and for co-writing the song “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.”
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Marty Supreme
Josh Safdie, Ronald Bronstein
Probability: 33.33% Up: 4.06%Nominations: Oscars, BAFTA, WGA, GG, Critics Choice
This marks Josh Safdie’s first Oscar nomination for screenwriting. Safdie is nominated alongside co-writer Ronald Bronstein — husband of “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” writer/director Mary Bronstein.
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Sentimental Value
Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Probability: 16.67% Down: -12.6%Nominations: Oscars, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier were previously nominated for this category with “The Worst Person in the World,” the final film in their Oslo Trilogy.
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It Was Just An Accident
Jafar Panahi
Probability: 1% Down: -15.67%Nominations: Oscars, GG
Asghar Farhadi (“A Separation”) was the only Iranian screenwriter with an Original Screenplay nomination prior to Jafar Panahi.
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Blue Moon
Robert Kaplow
Probability: 1% Down: -2.85%Nominations: Oscars
While “Blue Moon” is based on real people, it is a fictional imagining of a night in songwriter Lorenz Hart’s life.
Best Screenplay (Adapted)
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One Battle After Another
Paul Thomas Anderson
Probability: 80% Down: -3.33%Nominations: Oscars, BAFTA, WGA, GG, Critics Choice
Wins: GG, Critics Choice
Paul Thomas Anderson’s 11 pre-2026 Oscar nominations include five for his screenplays. He has yet to win.
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Hamnet
Chloé Zhao, Maggie O'Farrell
Probability: 33.33% Up: 10.61%Nominations: Oscars, BAFTA, WGA, GG, Critics Choice
Chloé Zhao was previously nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay for her Best Picture winner “Nomadland.” This time, she writes alongside Maggie O’Farrell, who wrote the novel “Hamnet.”
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Bugonia
Will Tracy
Probability: 26.67% Up: 14.91%Nominations: Oscars, BAFTA, WGA, Critics Choice
“Bugonia” is only the second film written Will Tracy, former editor-in-chief of “The Onion.” This marks his first Oscar nod.
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Train Dreams
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
Probability: 1% Down: -10.76%Nominations: Oscars, WGA, Critics Choice
Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley were nominated for Adapted Screenplay last year alongside Clarence Maclin and John “Divine G” Whitfield for writing “Sing Sing.”
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Frankenstein
Guillermo del Toro
Probability: 1% Down: -10.76%Nominations: Oscars, WGA, Critics Choice
Only three films this century have won Best Screenplay (Adapted) at the Oscars without a BAFTA nomination to match: “The Cider House Rules,” “Moonlight” and “Women Talking.” Unlike “Frankenstein,” all three scored nominations at the Golden Globes.
Methodology
The Awards Tracker draws from 25 years of historical data across eight major awards shows: SAG, DGA, BAFTA, WGA, PGA, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and the Oscars. For each year since 2000, we compiled all nominees and winners in eight top Academy Award categories: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Adapted Screenplay.
Using this comprehensive dataset, we calculated the percentage likelihood that a nomination or win at a precursor ceremony translates to an Oscar nomination or win. These probabilities update in real time throughout awards season as new nominations and winners are announced, giving users an up-to-date snapshot of each contender’s statistical path to the Oscars.
Our goal is to provide a data-backed, transparent view into the momentum and predictive power of precursor awards as the season unfolds.