As Hollywood and media seek new business models able to capitalize on unprecedented changing consumer habits, the question always ends up: Where will the growth come from?
A report from Activate Consulting offers some answers through new forecasts that includes a projection that as much as $1.3 trillion in new growth dollars will come to media, entertainment, internet and B2B software companies by 2030.
The study offers a roadmap of where to look for growth and where the money is going. The firm identified four key areas:
- Highly loyal and active users
- Sports
- Creator impact on streaming
- Growing pervasiveness of AI
Here’s how the $1.3 trillion in new revenue breaks down:
In terms of the categories, “internet and media revenues” include revenues from radio subscription and licensing fees, recorded music, book publishing, magazine publishing, newspaper publishing, video games, filmed entertainment, TV subscription and licensing fees, internet access, digital advertising and traditional advertising on these platforms. CAGR is the compound annual growth rate.
“B2B technology and software revenues” include revenues from
cloud-native applications and services (i.e. software, data storage and compute hosted on a public cloud platform or remote data center), on-premise applications and services and third-party IT services.
The core engine of growth is the super user.
“In the past, success in entertainment and media was about scale: capturing everyone — the greatest number of users, at scale. Companies now need to shift their focus to the highest value users who will drive the most engagement and spend the most money,” said Michael Wolf, founder and CEO of Activate Consulting. “In 2026, if you don’t have a superuser/superfan/ supergamer/supersubscriber strategy, then you don’t have a ‘strategy.’”
The other point Wolf was intent on making was that video rules the internet: Daily video viewing time will rise by 21 minutes — from six hours and 12 minutes in 2025 to six hours and 33 minutes by 2029
“Video is eating the internet! Everything is becoming video: social, podcasts, shopping, even AI,” said Wolf. “With the new Sora iOS/Android Apps (OpenAI) and Vibes (from Meta), both companies are creating their own short-snack video services which show how AI will drive engagement and advertising.”
The 245-page, data and graphics-laden report covers everything from films to streaming to AI to gaming to e-commerce to sports and spatial computing.
Some key takeways from the report:
Super users
Super users are defined as highly influential consumers who drive outsized time, dollars spent and impact across digital platforms. Wolf told TheWrap it’s all about “first to try, first to buy: 82% of super users are early adopters who try and purchase new technology and media products first. And they’re brand champions. For example, around 70% of super users actively promote the brands they buy through recommendations, social posts and reviews.”
Streaming
Creator-focused video is driving a new wave of streaming, particularly among younger consumers of entertainment and media.
A few points made by Wolf.
- Social is now video: Over 70% of time spent on social media platforms is watching video (Instagram, Facebook, TikTok, Reddit, X and Snapchat)
- Creators drive the feed: Most views on these platforms are not of friends, they’re of creators – 94% of views on YouTube are from creators, 81% on TikTok and 72% on Instagram
- Time spent across platforms: Users now spend 53 minutes daily on YouTube, 52 minutes on TikTok and 35 minutes on Instagram
- Podcasts go visual: 83% of podcast listeners want video versions, and 70% of the top 50 podcasters now produce video podcasts
- Shopping becomes video-driven: Ecommerce is evolving into a video and AI-integrated experience, with Amazon, TikTok and eBay embedding shopping directly into content
Sports
As we pointed out in our “Game On” series from September, which covered the impact of sports on entertainment, Activate’s report underscores this with a big shift to streaming.
The shift makes sense given how sports has become one of the rare events that bring disparate audiences together at a time when media consumption has become so fragmented. The fact that it’s live and appointment television makes it highly attractive for advertisers and media companies looking to secure eyeballs.
That’s why we called it a $29 billion juggernaut with an expectation to only go higher.
AI beyond search
The adoption rates for AI technology among consumers will continue to grow rapidly. “Even though 72 million Americans will start their web search on a dedicated Gen AI platform by 2029, ChatGPT is not going to eat Google’s lunch.”
While ChatGPT’s visits have gone up by 4.7 billion over the last year, Google’s visits have gone up by four times that much (+20.4 billion). AI expands, not cannibalizes, the search journey, Wolf added.
Beyond search, however, such as with AI glasses, so-called spatial computing is becoming a reality, Wolf noted. All the big tech companies are investing in spatial (Apple, Meta, Samsung, Google, etc.).
“Why are they placing so much cash on a market that’s in development? Quite simply, it’s a bet on the post-smartphone future,” Wolf said.
